Market Update
Bobo
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Oct 2026)

TLDR
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $1.07 billion over three sessions, including $524.8 million on Wednesday with no fund seeing outflows, as Bitcoin held a range between $81,300 and $84,400. Support is firm, with five failed attempts to close below $81,300, and a daily close above $84,333, the average ETF holder cost, on another strong inflow day could open the way to $86,100. Flows still trail past rally regimes, and contrarian sentiment readings suggest the crowd is leaning the right way for now.

Rational Active Allocation - Update (Oct 2026)
Education, Opinion
Bobo
Writer's Block, Too Many Ideas, and Why One of ...

TLDR: Universal suffrage has a structural flaw: votes are free to cast, but the promises they buy are billed to someone else. As Tytler (probably apocryphally) observed, the public will always eventually vote for the politicians who give them stuff. Zimbabwe ran that experiment in fast forward, “one man, one vote” delivered Mugabe, 89.7 sextillion percent inflation, a dead currency, and the banana republic Smith predicted to the letter. My argument: it's time we stopped treating "one adult, one vote" as the final, unrevisable form of democracy and considered tying the franchise to net contribution: mechanically, transparently, for everyone. The bill for our slower version of the same experiment is now showing up in the bond market. That's part two

Writer's Block, Too Many Ideas, and Why One of Them Eats the Other
Market Update
Bobo
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Sep 2026)

TLDR: Bitcoin starts today around $84,000, up ~30% (~$64,700) since our August 7 update (read update here) and fresh off an eight-month high, it opened the week near $85,000 and touched $87,000 on Wednesday before a hot US PMI sent Treasury yields above 5% and knocked it back under $84K, liquidating ~$510Macross the market in 24 hours (almost all longs). Crucially, the ETF bid didn't flinch: five straight inflow sessions totaling $2.65B, the best run since October 2025. And Bitwise's first institutional adoption report shows none of 15 major allocators cut crypto exposure during the ~50% drawdown, several added instead. The early-August "maximum pessimism" entry has played out; the opponent now is the bond market, not morale.

Rational Active Allocation - Update (Sep 2026)
Market Update
Bobo
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Aug 2026)

TLDR: Bitcoin is trading around $64,700–$65,000, roughly 48% below its all-time high of ~$126,200 (Oct 2025) and down ~45% year-over-year. The dominant news flow is the Coldcard hardware wallet exploit, with an attacker sweeping ~1,816 BTC (~$114M) from 5,200+ addresses since July 30 due to a firmware flaw dating to 2021. Sentiment is at rock bottom, Fear & Greed sits in "Extreme Fear" (~24) with persistent ETF outflows. Contrarian logic says moments of maximum pessimism like this are historically when the best long-term entries appear, but it's a principle, not a guarantee, and it's not financial advice.

Rational Active Allocation - Update (Aug 2026)
Market Update
Bobo
Rational Active Allocation - Update (July 2026)

Bitcoin broke $64k on softer U.S. inflation data, though core inflation and oil price hikes remain concerns. Markets expect Fed rates to hold steady ahead of the July meeting, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony closely watched. The rally triggered $105 M in short liquidations and drew $173 M net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Rational Active Allocation - Update (July 2026)

2026-Q4

Rational Active Allocation - Update (Oct 2026)

Rational Active Allocation - Update (Oct 2026)

TLDR
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $1.07 billion over three sessions, including $524.8 million on Wednesday with no fund seeing outflows, as Bitcoin held a range between $81,300 and $84,400. Support is firm, with five failed attempts to close below $81,300, and a daily close above $84,333, the average ETF holder cost, on another strong inflow day could open the way to $86,100. Flows still trail past rally regimes, and contrarian sentiment readings suggest the crowd is leaning the right way for now.

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Rational Active Allocation - Update (Oct 2026)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Oct 2026)

TLDR
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $1.07 billion over three sessions, including $524.8 million on Wednesday with no fund seeing outflows, as Bitcoin held a range between $81,300 and $84,400. Support is firm, with five failed attempts to close below $81,300, and a daily close above $84,333, the average ETF holder cost, on another strong inflow day could open the way to $86,100. Flows still trail past rally regimes, and contrarian sentiment readings suggest the crowd is leaning the right way for now.

Read more →
Writer's Block, Too Many Ideas, and Why One of Them Eats the Other
Writer's Block, Too Many Ideas, and Why One of Them Eats the Other

TLDR: Universal suffrage has a structural flaw: votes are free to cast, but the promises they buy are billed to someone else. As Tytler (probably apocryphally) observed, the public will always eventually vote for the politicians who give them stuff. Zimbabwe ran that experiment in fast forward, “one man, one vote” delivered Mugabe, 89.7 sextillion percent inflation, a dead currency, and the banana republic Smith predicted to the letter. My argument: it's time we stopped treating "one adult, one vote" as the final, unrevisable form of democracy and considered tying the franchise to net contribution: mechanically, transparently, for everyone. The bill for our slower version of the same experiment is now showing up in the bond market. That's part two

Read more →
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Sep 2026)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Sep 2026)

TLDR: Bitcoin starts today around $84,000, up ~30% (~$64,700) since our August 7 update (read update here) and fresh off an eight-month high, it opened the week near $85,000 and touched $87,000 on Wednesday before a hot US PMI sent Treasury yields above 5% and knocked it back under $84K, liquidating ~$510Macross the market in 24 hours (almost all longs). Crucially, the ETF bid didn't flinch: five straight inflow sessions totaling $2.65B, the best run since October 2025. And Bitwise's first institutional adoption report shows none of 15 major allocators cut crypto exposure during the ~50% drawdown, several added instead. The early-August "maximum pessimism" entry has played out; the opponent now is the bond market, not morale.

Read more →
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Aug 2026)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Aug 2026)

TLDR: Bitcoin is trading around $64,700–$65,000, roughly 48% below its all-time high of ~$126,200 (Oct 2025) and down ~45% year-over-year. The dominant news flow is the Coldcard hardware wallet exploit, with an attacker sweeping ~1,816 BTC (~$114M) from 5,200+ addresses since July 30 due to a firmware flaw dating to 2021. Sentiment is at rock bottom, Fear & Greed sits in "Extreme Fear" (~24) with persistent ETF outflows. Contrarian logic says moments of maximum pessimism like this are historically when the best long-term entries appear, but it's a principle, not a guarantee, and it's not financial advice.

Read more →
Rational Active Allocation - Update (July 2026)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (July 2026)

Bitcoin broke $64k on softer U.S. inflation data, though core inflation and oil price hikes remain concerns. Markets expect Fed rates to hold steady ahead of the July meeting, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony closely watched. The rally triggered $105 M in short liquidations and drew $173 M net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Read more →
From the archive (6 July 2010)
From the archive (6 July 2010)

Words of wisdom quoted on this day in history …

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Ink, Inflation, and the Digital Gold Rush: is Bitcoin humanity’s last chance?
Ink, Inflation, and the Digital Gold Rush: is Bitcoin humanity’s last chance?

Governments have historically stolen wealth by printing fiat money, a moral crime that fuels inflation, war, and authoritarian control, especially under socialist/communist regimes. JG Hulsmann warned of this “drop of ink” danger in 2008.

Bitcoin, with its fixed 21 million supply and proof‑of‑work mining, restores “natural money” by making money creation costly, decentralized, and resistant to government manipulation.

In short: stop the endless printing, adopt sound digital money, and protect future generations.

Read more →
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Jun 2026)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Jun 2026)

Bitcoin’s $61.5k Support Cracked: Why the Bear Cycle May Deepen

#BTC #Macro #Bitcoin

Read more →
Rational Active Allocation - Update (May 2026)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (May 2026)

TLDR: April’s rally gave Bitcoin its best month in a year, and early‑May it crossed $80 k, clearing a key supply wall and reclaiming the “true market mean.” The surge is driven by strong spot buying (ETF inflows and open‑market accumulation), not leverage, and long‑term “conviction” holders now control almost  20% of BTC, the biggest build‑up since the COVID‑19 crash.

#BTC #Macro #Bitcoin

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From the archive (1 May 2020)
From the archive (1 May 2020)

Words of wisdom quoted on this day in history …

Read more →
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Mar 2026)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Mar 2026)

TLDR: Bitcoin rallied to $76K but pulled back to ~$70K, still above March lows and outperforming gold (up 7% vs. down 17%). Despite near-term volatility, current prices are likely to look very attractive long-term. Institutional demand is strong, with $167M in Bitcoin ETF inflows and Morgan Stanley’s spot ETF poised for launch. A move above $72K could signal new momentum.

#BTC #Macro #Bitcoin

Read more →
Beware the Ides of March!
Beware the Ides of March!
Read more →
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Feb 2026)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Feb 2026)

TLDR: Bitcoin is trading sideways after a recent dip. It's a stable moment, with support around $60k-$69k. If you're already DCA'ing, now might be a good time to increase your buys – less risk, potential for future gains.

#BTC #Macro #Bitcoin

Read more →
From the archive (21 Feb 2010)
From the archive (21 Feb 2010)

Words of wisdom quoted on this day in history …

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Gold's Moment, Bitcoin's Future: Understanding the Current Market
Gold's Moment, Bitcoin's Future: Understanding the Current Market

Bitcoin is under performing Gold right now because Central Banks are buying Gold as a safe haven in uncertain times. They're sticking with what they know – and most decision-makers at these institutions don't understand Bitcoin yet. This isn’t a bad sign for Bitcoin’s future, but means we need patience as understanding and adoption grow over time.

Read more →
From the archive (17 Jan 2009)
From the archive (17 Jan 2009)

Words of wisdom quoted on this day in history …

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From the archive (14 Jan 2019)
From the archive (14 Jan 2019)

Words of wisdom quoted on this day in history …

Read more →
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Jan 2026)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Jan 2026)

TLDR: Bitcoin had a slow end to 2025, but it’s showing some early signs of life in 2026. ETF selling is slowing, and big treasury companies are still buying. Keep an eye on those ETF flows to see if this is a real comeback or just a temporary bump! #BTC #Macro #Bitcoin

Read more →
From the archive (18 Dec 2013)
From the archive (18 Dec 2013)

Words of wisdom quoted on this day in history …

Read more →
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Dec 2025)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Dec 2025)

Fully positioned in BTC heading into the FOMC meeting. Macro landscape shifting rapidly – potential end to QT, whispers of QE returning. We’re capitalizing on the pullback from recent highs, viewing this as an opportunity. Key is watching for dovish signals from the Fed. Prepared for volatility. #BTC #FOMC #Macro #Bitcoin

Read more →
Federal Reserve Policy Shift: Implications for Asset Markets
Federal Reserve Policy Shift: Implications for Asset Markets

TL;DR: The Federal Reserve’s cessation of Quantitative Tightening signals a potential shift towards liquidity expansion, historically associated with improved asset performance (stocks, gold, and particularly Bitcoin). Investors should prepare for potential volatility, prioritize the allocation to scarce assets, and remain vigilant regarding domestic political developments which could introduce unforeseen systemic risks.

Read more →
From the archive (8 Nov 2008)
From the archive (8 Nov 2008)

Words of wisdom quoted on this day in history …

Read more →
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Oct 2025)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Oct 2025)

Bitcoin is nearing a critical resistance zone at $116,000–$120,000, where historical trading volume is highest. We anticipate a potential stall in price action at this level, and our next steps will depend on market behavior. Two outcomes are possible:

Read more →
Gen-Z Series: Is Bitcoin on Revolut Really Yours?
Gen-Z Series: Is Bitcoin on Revolut Really Yours?

"Buying Bitcoin on Revolut is easy, but it doesn't mean you own Bitcoin. You own an IOU. If you want true financial sovereignty, you need to take control with self-custody and a hardware wallet. Don't let convenience come at the cost of freedom. #Bitcoin #SelfCustody #FinancialSovereignty"

Read more →
Rational Active Allocation - Update (July 2025)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (July 2025)

Based on current market analysis, we anticipate Bitcoin's price to continue trending higher over the mid-term (next 2-4 months). However, price movements may ..

Read more →
From the archive (9 Jul 2010)
From the archive (9 Jul 2010)

Words of wisdom quoted on this day in history …

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Money or Currency: Why it Matters
Money or Currency: Why it Matters

For most of us, the terms "money" and "currency" are interchangeable. And in day-to-day life, that's perfectly fine. But understanding the difference between the two is becoming increasingly important, especially as Bitcoin gains traction. This isn’t just semantics; it has huge implications for how we think about finance, policy, and the future of money.

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The Unwinding
The Unwinding

The current state of the global economy is a complex and intriguing topic. Here are a few key points to consider:

  • The US dollar has been the world reserve currency since the end of World War II

  • The US has been running a persistent trade deficit, importing goods and services from other countries in exchange for dollars

  • Countries like China have been running large trade surpluses, but have been investing their profits in US assets rather than their own economy

  • The global monetary system is facing a crisis, with many experts predicting a significant shift in the way money is valued and traded

Read more →
Bitcoin Pizza Day - 22 May ($1 Billion) - Update
Bitcoin Pizza Day - 22 May ($1 Billion) - Update

May 22 is an notorious day for Bitcoin, it is the anniversary of the famous pizza transaction.

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Rational Active Allocation - Update (Apr 2025)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Apr 2025)

In summary:

• Bitcoin's market is volatile, with typical price swings around 5% influenced by sentiment and economic factors.

• Weekend trading is thinner, affecting price movements due to lower liquidity among investors.

• Blackrock's Bitcoin purchases help stabilize the market, attracting more stable ETF buyers.

• Regulatory improvements and potential ETF approvals may legitimize Bitcoin, reducing risks for institutional investors.

• Current market conditions suggest it may be a good time to invest in Bitcoin amid ongoing fluctuations.

Read more →