Market Update
Bobo
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Sep 2026)

TLDR: Bitcoin starts today around $84,000, up ~30% (~$64,700) since our August 7 update (read update here) and fresh off an eight-month high, it opened the week near $85,000 and touched $87,000 on Wednesday before a hot US PMI sent Treasury yields above 5% and knocked it back under $84K, liquidating ~$510Macross the market in 24 hours (almost all longs). Crucially, the ETF bid didn't flinch: five straight inflow sessions totaling $2.65B, the best run since October 2025. And Bitwise's first institutional adoption report shows none of 15 major allocators cut crypto exposure during the ~50% drawdown, several added instead. The early-August "maximum pessimism" entry has played out; the opponent now is the bond market, not morale.

Rational Active Allocation - Update (Sep 2026)
Market Update
Bobo
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Aug 2026)

TLDR: Bitcoin is trading around $64,700–$65,000, roughly 48% below its all-time high of ~$126,200 (Oct 2025) and down ~45% year-over-year. The dominant news flow is the Coldcard hardware wallet exploit, with an attacker sweeping ~1,816 BTC (~$114M) from 5,200+ addresses since July 30 due to a firmware flaw dating to 2021. Sentiment is at rock bottom, Fear & Greed sits in "Extreme Fear" (~24) with persistent ETF outflows. Contrarian logic says moments of maximum pessimism like this are historically when the best long-term entries appear, but it's a principle, not a guarantee, and it's not financial advice.

Rational Active Allocation - Update (Aug 2026)
Market Update
Bobo
Rational Active Allocation - Update (July 2026)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (July 2026)
Education, From the Archive
Bobo
From the archive (6 July 2010)

Words of wisdom quoted on this day in history …

From the archive (6 July 2010)
Education
Bobo
Ink, Inflation, and the Digital Gold Rush: is ...

Governments have historically stolen wealth by printing fiat money, a moral crime that fuels inflation, war, and authoritarian control, especially under socialist/communist regimes. JG Hulsmann warned of this “drop of ink” danger in 2008.

Bitcoin, with its fixed 21 million supply and proof‑of‑work mining, restores “natural money” by making money creation costly, decentralized, and resistant to government manipulation.

In short: stop the endless printing, adopt sound digital money, and protect future generations.

Ink, Inflation, and the Digital Gold Rush: is Bitcoin humanity’s last chance?

Market Update

Rational Active Allocation - Update (Sep 2026)

Rational Active Allocation - Update (Sep 2026)

TLDR: Bitcoin starts today around $84,000, up ~30% (~$64,700) since our August 7 update (read update here) and fresh off an eight-month high, it opened the week near $85,000 and touched $87,000 on Wednesday before a hot US PMI sent Treasury yields above 5% and knocked it back under $84K, liquidating ~$510Macross the market in 24 hours (almost all longs). Crucially, the ETF bid didn't flinch: five straight inflow sessions totaling $2.65B, the best run since October 2025. And Bitwise's first institutional adoption report shows none of 15 major allocators cut crypto exposure during the ~50% drawdown, several added instead. The early-August "maximum pessimism" entry has played out; the opponent now is the bond market, not morale.

Rational Active Allocation - Update (Aug 2026)

Rational Active Allocation - Update (Aug 2026)

TLDR: Bitcoin is trading around $64,700–$65,000, roughly 48% below its all-time high of ~$126,200 (Oct 2025) and down ~45% year-over-year. The dominant news flow is the Coldcard hardware wallet exploit, with an attacker sweeping ~1,816 BTC (~$114M) from 5,200+ addresses since July 30 due to a firmware flaw dating to 2021. Sentiment is at rock bottom, Fear & Greed sits in "Extreme Fear" (~24) with persistent ETF outflows. Contrarian logic says moments of maximum pessimism like this are historically when the best long-term entries appear, but it's a principle, not a guarantee, and it's not financial advice.

Rational Active Allocation - Update (July 2026)

Photo by Brian Wangenheim on Unsplash

Bitcoin broke $64k on softer U.S. inflation data, though core inflation and oil price hikes remain concerns. Markets expect Fed rates to hold steady ahead of the July meeting, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony closely watched. The rally triggered $105 M in short liquidations and drew $173 M net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Regulators are pushing the Clarity Act forward, Senator Cynthia Lummis says it’s “ready for prime time,” and President Trump urges Senate passage, despite procedural hurdles. At current price levels, Bitcoin accumulation is underway hinting at a solid long‑term entry point.

If you are not ready to hold Bitcoin yourself, an option while you “Study Bitcoin”, is to follow our "platform verified” strategy - Rational Active Allocation. You can do so with as little as £20 per month, knowing that every allocation update we make to accumulate more Bitcoin will be replicated for you. This is a custodial solution from ICONOMI (we will never hold your funds) aimed at those just starting their Bitcoin journey.

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DISCLAIMER

This publication is general in nature and is not intended to constitute any professional advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial or investment products. You should seek separate professional advice before taking any action in relation to the matters dealt with in this publication. Please also note our disclosure here

Rational Active Allocation - Update (May 2026)

Rational Active Allocation - Update (May 2026)

TLDR: April’s rally gave Bitcoin its best month in a year, and early‑May it crossed $80 k, clearing a key supply wall and reclaiming the “true market mean.” The surge is driven by strong spot buying (ETF inflows and open‑market accumulation), not leverage, and long‑term “conviction” holders now control almost  20% of BTC, the biggest build‑up since the COVID‑19 crash.

#BTC #Macro #Bitcoin

Rational Active Allocation - Update (Mar 2026)

Rational Active Allocation - Update (Mar 2026)

TLDR: Bitcoin rallied to $76K but pulled back to ~$70K, still above March lows and outperforming gold (up 7% vs. down 17%). Despite near-term volatility, current prices are likely to look very attractive long-term. Institutional demand is strong, with $167M in Bitcoin ETF inflows and Morgan Stanley’s spot ETF poised for launch. A move above $72K could signal new momentum.

#BTC #Macro #Bitcoin

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Rational Active Allocation - Update (Sep 2026)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Sep 2026)

TLDR: Bitcoin starts today around $84,000, up ~30% (~$64,700) since our August 7 update (read update here) and fresh off an eight-month high, it opened the week near $85,000 and touched $87,000 on Wednesday before a hot US PMI sent Treasury yields above 5% and knocked it back under $84K, liquidating ~$510Macross the market in 24 hours (almost all longs). Crucially, the ETF bid didn't flinch: five straight inflow sessions totaling $2.65B, the best run since October 2025. And Bitwise's first institutional adoption report shows none of 15 major allocators cut crypto exposure during the ~50% drawdown, several added instead. The early-August "maximum pessimism" entry has played out; the opponent now is the bond market, not morale.

Read more →
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Aug 2026)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Aug 2026)

TLDR: Bitcoin is trading around $64,700–$65,000, roughly 48% below its all-time high of ~$126,200 (Oct 2025) and down ~45% year-over-year. The dominant news flow is the Coldcard hardware wallet exploit, with an attacker sweeping ~1,816 BTC (~$114M) from 5,200+ addresses since July 30 due to a firmware flaw dating to 2021. Sentiment is at rock bottom, Fear & Greed sits in "Extreme Fear" (~24) with persistent ETF outflows. Contrarian logic says moments of maximum pessimism like this are historically when the best long-term entries appear, but it's a principle, not a guarantee, and it's not financial advice.

Read more →
Rational Active Allocation - Update (July 2026)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (July 2026)
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From the archive (6 July 2010)
From the archive (6 July 2010)

Words of wisdom quoted on this day in history …

Read more →
Ink, Inflation, and the Digital Gold Rush: is Bitcoin humanity’s last chance?
Ink, Inflation, and the Digital Gold Rush: is Bitcoin humanity’s last chance?

Governments have historically stolen wealth by printing fiat money, a moral crime that fuels inflation, war, and authoritarian control, especially under socialist/communist regimes. JG Hulsmann warned of this “drop of ink” danger in 2008.

Bitcoin, with its fixed 21 million supply and proof‑of‑work mining, restores “natural money” by making money creation costly, decentralized, and resistant to government manipulation.

In short: stop the endless printing, adopt sound digital money, and protect future generations.

Read more →
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Jun 2026)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Jun 2026)

Bitcoin’s $61.5k Support Cracked: Why the Bear Cycle May Deepen

#BTC #Macro #Bitcoin

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Rational Active Allocation - Update (May 2026)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (May 2026)

TLDR: April’s rally gave Bitcoin its best month in a year, and early‑May it crossed $80 k, clearing a key supply wall and reclaiming the “true market mean.” The surge is driven by strong spot buying (ETF inflows and open‑market accumulation), not leverage, and long‑term “conviction” holders now control almost  20% of BTC, the biggest build‑up since the COVID‑19 crash.

#BTC #Macro #Bitcoin

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From the archive (1 May 2020)
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Rational Active Allocation - Update (Mar 2026)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Mar 2026)

TLDR: Bitcoin rallied to $76K but pulled back to ~$70K, still above March lows and outperforming gold (up 7% vs. down 17%). Despite near-term volatility, current prices are likely to look very attractive long-term. Institutional demand is strong, with $167M in Bitcoin ETF inflows and Morgan Stanley’s spot ETF poised for launch. A move above $72K could signal new momentum.

#BTC #Macro #Bitcoin

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Rational Active Allocation - Update (Feb 2026)
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TLDR: Bitcoin is trading sideways after a recent dip. It's a stable moment, with support around $60k-$69k. If you're already DCA'ing, now might be a good time to increase your buys – less risk, potential for future gains.

#BTC #Macro #Bitcoin

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Gold's Moment, Bitcoin's Future: Understanding the Current Market
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Bitcoin is under performing Gold right now because Central Banks are buying Gold as a safe haven in uncertain times. They're sticking with what they know – and most decision-makers at these institutions don't understand Bitcoin yet. This isn’t a bad sign for Bitcoin’s future, but means we need patience as understanding and adoption grow over time.

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Rational Active Allocation - Update (Jan 2026)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Jan 2026)

TLDR: Bitcoin had a slow end to 2025, but it’s showing some early signs of life in 2026. ETF selling is slowing, and big treasury companies are still buying. Keep an eye on those ETF flows to see if this is a real comeback or just a temporary bump! #BTC #Macro #Bitcoin

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Rational Active Allocation - Update (Dec 2025)
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Fully positioned in BTC heading into the FOMC meeting. Macro landscape shifting rapidly – potential end to QT, whispers of QE returning. We’re capitalizing on the pullback from recent highs, viewing this as an opportunity. Key is watching for dovish signals from the Fed. Prepared for volatility. #BTC #FOMC #Macro #Bitcoin

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TL;DR: The Federal Reserve’s cessation of Quantitative Tightening signals a potential shift towards liquidity expansion, historically associated with improved asset performance (stocks, gold, and particularly Bitcoin). Investors should prepare for potential volatility, prioritize the allocation to scarce assets, and remain vigilant regarding domestic political developments which could introduce unforeseen systemic risks.

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Bitcoin is nearing a critical resistance zone at $116,000–$120,000, where historical trading volume is highest. We anticipate a potential stall in price action at this level, and our next steps will depend on market behavior. Two outcomes are possible:

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"Buying Bitcoin on Revolut is easy, but it doesn't mean you own Bitcoin. You own an IOU. If you want true financial sovereignty, you need to take control with self-custody and a hardware wallet. Don't let convenience come at the cost of freedom. #Bitcoin #SelfCustody #FinancialSovereignty"

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Rational Active Allocation - Update (July 2025)
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Based on current market analysis, we anticipate Bitcoin's price to continue trending higher over the mid-term (next 2-4 months). However, price movements may ..

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For most of us, the terms "money" and "currency" are interchangeable. And in day-to-day life, that's perfectly fine. But understanding the difference between the two is becoming increasingly important, especially as Bitcoin gains traction. This isn’t just semantics; it has huge implications for how we think about finance, policy, and the future of money.

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The current state of the global economy is a complex and intriguing topic. Here are a few key points to consider:

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• Bitcoin's market is volatile, with typical price swings around 5% influenced by sentiment and economic factors.

• Weekend trading is thinner, affecting price movements due to lower liquidity among investors.

• Blackrock's Bitcoin purchases help stabilize the market, attracting more stable ETF buyers.

• Regulatory improvements and potential ETF approvals may legitimize Bitcoin, reducing risks for institutional investors.

• Current market conditions suggest it may be a good time to invest in Bitcoin amid ongoing fluctuations.

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Rational Active Allocation - Update (Feb 2025)

Wanted to take a moment to provide you with an update on the recent market sell-offs.

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