Bitcoin’s $61.5k Support Cracked: Why the Bear Cycle May Deepen
#BTC #Macro #Bitcoin
Rational Active Allocation - Update (May 2026)
TLDR: April’s rally gave Bitcoin its best month in a year, and early‑May it crossed $80 k, clearing a key supply wall and reclaiming the “true market mean.” The surge is driven by strong spot buying (ETF inflows and open‑market accumulation), not leverage, and long‑term “conviction” holders now control almost 20% of BTC, the biggest build‑up since the COVID‑19 crash.
#BTC #Macro #Bitcoin
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Mar 2026)
TLDR: Bitcoin rallied to $76K but pulled back to ~$70K, still above March lows and outperforming gold (up 7% vs. down 17%). Despite near-term volatility, current prices are likely to look very attractive long-term. Institutional demand is strong, with $167M in Bitcoin ETF inflows and Morgan Stanley’s spot ETF poised for launch. A move above $72K could signal new momentum.
#BTC #Macro #Bitcoin
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Feb 2026)
Gold's Moment, Bitcoin's Future: Understanding the Current Market
Bitcoin is under performing Gold right now because Central Banks are buying Gold as a safe haven in uncertain times. They're sticking with what they know – and most decision-makers at these institutions don't understand Bitcoin yet. This isn’t a bad sign for Bitcoin’s future, but means we need patience as understanding and adoption grow over time.
From the archive (14 Jan 2019)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Jan 2026)
Rational Active Allocation - Update (Dec 2025)
Fully positioned in BTC heading into the FOMC meeting. Macro landscape shifting rapidly – potential end to QT, whispers of QE returning. We’re capitalizing on the pullback from recent highs, viewing this as an opportunity. Key is watching for dovish signals from the Fed. Prepared for volatility. #BTC #FOMC #Macro #Bitcoin
Federal Reserve Policy Shift: Implications for Asset Markets
TL;DR: The Federal Reserve’s cessation of Quantitative Tightening signals a potential shift towards liquidity expansion, historically associated with improved asset performance (stocks, gold, and particularly Bitcoin). Investors should prepare for potential volatility, prioritize the allocation to scarce assets, and remain vigilant regarding domestic political developments which could introduce unforeseen systemic risks.
