Market Update

Rational Active Allocation - Update (July 2026)

Photo by Brian Wangenheim on Unsplash

Bitcoin broke $64k on softer U.S. inflation data, though core inflation and oil price hikes remain concerns. Markets expect Fed rates to hold steady ahead of the July meeting, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony closely watched. The rally triggered $105 M in short liquidations and drew $173 M net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Regulators are pushing the Clarity Act forward, Senator Cynthia Lummis says it’s “ready for prime time,” and President Trump urges Senate passage, despite procedural hurdles. At current price levels, Bitcoin accumulation is underway hinting at a solid long‑term entry point.


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Rational Active Allocation - Update (May 2026)

Rational Active Allocation - Update (May 2026)

TLDR: April’s rally gave Bitcoin its best month in a year, and early‑May it crossed $80 k, clearing a key supply wall and reclaiming the “true market mean.” The surge is driven by strong spot buying (ETF inflows and open‑market accumulation), not leverage, and long‑term “conviction” holders now control almost  20% of BTC, the biggest build‑up since the COVID‑19 crash.

#BTC #Macro #Bitcoin

Rational Active Allocation - Update (Mar 2026)

Rational Active Allocation - Update (Mar 2026)

TLDR: Bitcoin rallied to $76K but pulled back to ~$70K, still above March lows and outperforming gold (up 7% vs. down 17%). Despite near-term volatility, current prices are likely to look very attractive long-term. Institutional demand is strong, with $167M in Bitcoin ETF inflows and Morgan Stanley’s spot ETF poised for launch. A move above $72K could signal new momentum.

#BTC #Macro #Bitcoin

Rational Active Allocation - Update (Apr 2025)

Rational Active Allocation - Update (Apr 2025)

In summary:

• Bitcoin's market is volatile, with typical price swings around 5% influenced by sentiment and economic factors.

• Weekend trading is thinner, affecting price movements due to lower liquidity among investors.

• Blackrock's Bitcoin purchases help stabilize the market, attracting more stable ETF buyers.

• Regulatory improvements and potential ETF approvals may legitimize Bitcoin, reducing risks for institutional investors.

• Current market conditions suggest it may be a good time to invest in Bitcoin amid ongoing fluctuations.